A Few Words About Social Security

A few weeks ago my friend Maggie put one of those billboard thingys that you often see on Facebook on her page.  It had to do with Social Security, and it seemed to me to be very simplistic, so I said that in response, to which Maggie replied "Oh do explain, professor".  So, for Maggie and everyone else, here is a brief explanation of the facts and myths of Social Security, and my opinion on how me might "fix" it.

Myth #1 Social Security is a savings account set aside for you.  Social Security was designed as a "pay as you go" system, where money is taken from workers today and given to retired folks.  While you work you pay in, and when you reach 65 you can sit on your ass at the early bird special and collect.  Many are confused I think by the statement we receive every year.  So, to say it is "not an entitlement" is not really true.

Sorta Myth #2 There is a Social Security Trust Fund.  In the 1980's, when the folks in Congress were a bit less dim than they are today, they actually looked at the problem the Baby Boom generation was going to create for Social Security.  So, they increased the amount taken out of our checks, and until recently Social Security took in more than it paid out.  The problem is that the extra money, according to law, was loaned to the rest of the government.  Remember Al Gore saying "Lockbox" about 200 times during the 2000 election?  He was talking about some way to sequester that money so it would be there.  Now, the situation is that officially there is this trust fund, but it has all been loaned to the Federal Government, which means that it must be repaid by taxpayers.  So we owe ourselves a shitload of money.

Myth #3  Social Security is Broke.  This is technically not true. Under current rules it has enough money in that "trust fund" to pay benefits for about 20 years ( the actual number depends on whose projections you look at, and projections that far ahead tend to be inaccurate).  And it could pay lesser benefits for many years beyond that.  So when people say "Social Security won't be there when I retire" it is pretty much nonsense.  The problem is that we now have so much Federal debt, that the burden of paying it off along with paying social security and medicare in the future will mean the government won't be able to do anything else.  But it is not SS that is broke.  It will, though, under current rules, not be able to pay the benefits it now pays (adjusted for inflation) in the future unless something is done about it.

You May Not Know This But....

• When SS was created in the 1930's and the retirement age was set at 65, the life expectancy was around 65, which means about 50% of people would never collect a cent.  Today it is close to 80 years.
• Because of the baby boom and social changes, the number of workers paying into the system for each retiree has dropped from 16 in 1950 to about 3 today.
• At a bit over $110k per year of income, they stop taking social security taxes out of your paycheck.  If you have never made that much money, or don't work in payroll, you probably are not aware of that.  So, if you make $110k per year, you  and your employer (or just you, if you are self-employed) pay the same amount into SS as Lebron James, Bill Gates and Lady Gaga.  So SS is a regressive tax.

How I would "Fix" it...

• Raise the age.  A year or two of paying in versus taking money out is a substantial amount of money.  And clearly, folks who are 65 today are in far better health than those in 1938.
• Raise or do away with the income cap for paying the tax.

I'll be honest: I haven't done the numbers, but I am pretty sure those 2 fixes would go a long way to allowing future retirees to receive the same benefits as the ones today do.

Now, anyone want to get into Medicare's problems?

NO, I Did Not Forget What A Paragraph Is!

For some reason Blogger has decided not to put the paragraph breaks that I used into my last two blog posts. Fucking great work guys! Sorry they look like shit and are hard to read.

What I Learned From Our Little Fire

With the fire that started last Tuesday on the mountain near my house under control, thanks to the great efforts of a bunch of fire fighters, it is kind of amusing to look at the way it affected me and my neighbors when we got a "pre-evacuation", reverse 911 call at around 5:30 that evening.

 I was working on the Banjo Billy Bus that day, and at about 3pm I saw a plume of smoke coming up over the mountains. It was clear that the fire was on the other side of the mountain, so I was not terribly concerned. By 5pm, when I again was where I could get a view of what was going on, I could see that my neighborhood on the southern edge of Boulder was now covered in smoke, enough smoke so that it was now impossible to tell exactly what was burning. Oh, and did I mention that it was an extremely hot and windy afternoon, the kind that is perfect for spreading a fire? As a matter of fact, those very same conditions caused the fire in Colorado Springs to blow completely out of control that afternoon and destroy about 350 homes.

 As I finished my tour in downtown Boulder my phone rang. My step-brother Jim, who lives in Superior about 8 miles from me, was calling to offer help and a place to stay if I needed it. At this point all I know is that there is smoke over my house, and I had seen some neighbors heading home early while I was finishing my tour. "Do you know something I don't know?", I asked. He said he had heard there were pre-evac calls. So now I am in a hurry to get home, and the "pre-evac" call comes a few minutes after Jim's. The call says to prepare for possible evacuation. What the HELL does THAT mean?

 It turns out it means a lot of different things to different people. To me if meant trying to figure out on the way home what I absolutely would be screwed if I lost. When I got home, adrenaline pumping, I grabbed a bunch of files from my file cabinet (financial stuff, stuff I'd written long ago, my REAL birth certificate) and threw the in a suitcase and put that in the car. Then I took pictures of everything in the house. Then, I had a sandwich while I tried to think of what else, other than some clothes, I had to take if I had to go. Sad thing, or maybe happy thing, is that I just don't have that much stuff I can't replace. Some of my neighbors, by the way, either grabbed all their stuff and left, or loaded their cars and had them parked, facing out, ready to go.

So, now it's about 7:30, I've done all I can think to do without a real evacuation order and......what? I thought I'd relax and watch some TV, like maybe CH 7 in Denver which had switched to full-time coverage of "Colorado Burning", dumping their regular programming. And what do I see trying to "relax"? A bit about the fire near my house, but nothing new. Mostly they are showing bunch of horrible video of the Waldo Canyon fire that now threatened to burn Colorado Springs and had caused evacuation of the Air Force Academy. And the tale of how that fire got whipped from small to disastrous in just minutes. Oh, and every ten minutes they cut to the weather guy, who to me is saying "It will never, ever, rain again in Colorado, high winds are coming, and we are all doomed". Thinking back on it, there is a good chance that is not what he actually said, but that's what I heard. But it was all very relaxing!

 The other form of entertainment was standing outside on the street with my neighbors and staring up at the mountains, looking to see if there are any flames on this side of it, and cheering on the slurry bombers. There were. Near the top, but still, remember the weather report said wind and no rain. We were doomed!

 And that's what I learned from the fire....that it is impossible to relax when you think that you may have to run from your home at any minute. Even though logic told me that the fire was on the other side of the mountain, and we had watched the slurry bombers laying fire retardant on our side of the mountain, and any fire would have to go through a lot of sprinkler systems to get to my house, I could not relax. I did fall asleep, mostly because my adrenaline rush finally wore off. But then I woke up in the middle of the night and looked out my window at the mountain, where I could see flames.

In the history of Colorado wildfires, this 300 acre fire is nothing. But it freaked us out here in Shanahan Ridge like our pants were on fire. Which makes me really feel for the people who live in areas where fire has actually attacked. Imagine the weeks of this some people have to live through. It also gave me even more respect for my friends Dave and Maggie, who run the murder mystery company I work for. When the area of the mountains west of Boulder was on fire in September of 2010, they not only kept their shit together, but they managed to grab all the stuff that the murder company would need to do the show we were scheduled for at the Boulderado that Friday. And they were sure their house was on fire when they left. When they called me on Wednesday after they had been evacuated to ask for my help in making copies of something for the script, I was shocked that the show would go on. Hearty folks, those mountain people.

Later this week I hope to write a bit more about how bad the fire threat is, why, and how unprepared we are for this. There has been a lot of good stuff written in the Denver Post about it recently. But now, with smoke no longer rising over the mountain, I think I'll relax.

Political Ads Appeal to our Lazy Brains

Sometimes, a bunch of stuff from different sources comes together in my brain. My "slow" brain, that is. I recently started reading "Thinking Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman, which is based on the idea of two types of thinking which he calls System 1 and System 2. System 1 operates quickly and automatically, with very little effort on the part of the thinker. You see a guy in a red shirt and your brain goes "red shirt" without much thought. Or you can add 2+2. System 2 gets involved to in more in-depth thinking and problem solving. It requires more effort and concentration. If you had to multiply 123x456 in your head, you need system 2. There is some interesting research in his book about what happens when the two different systems are at work that is far too extensive to go into here. But one thing that is interesting is that the two systems arrive often arrive at different answers. A popular example is solving this problem:

A boy buys a bat and ball for a total of $1.10. The bat cost $1 more than the ball. What did the ball cost?

If I made you answer that in 2 seconds, there is a good chance you answer it with system 1 and say "10 cents". However, if I give you a minute to think about it, and you are not too lazy to use system 2 to think about it, you will come up with the correct answer of 5 cents. Some people, however, would be too lazy to bother to switch on system 2, and stick with the wrong answer. Last night I was reading "TF&S" right after watching Jeopardy, during which I was bombarded at every break with ads from Obama and Romney providing conflicting, shallow and misleading information about Romney's performance as Gov. of Mass, during which I posted on Facebook about how they must assume we are idiots. As I read, what goes on with political advertising became apparent, and was reinforced this morning when I read Factcheck.org Director Brooks Jackson's piece "Why the Truth Still Matters". Political ads are designed to work on System 1. Almost all political ads take selected facts about a candidate and make those appear as if that is the candidate's entire story. Okay, those are the closest to honest ones. Others, mostly being run now by the Superpacs, take things completely out of context, or just outright lie. Either way, the 20 second ad that says "Romney, job creator", which during Jeopardy in this swing state is followed by "Romney, job destroyer" are trying to plant that connection in your head, and assume you will not apply system 2 thought to the situation and actually think about what was said. And they definitely assume you are too lazy to look up the real facts. I guess there is nothing surprising about that, except that when it happens when I'm watching Jeopardy I really have to wonder who is placing the ads. The whole point of the game is to get your system 2 brain operating at full capacity and full speed. It is not a system 1 type of show. So, why are they wasting their money insulting those of us who enjoy the brain exercise of Jeopardy with their ads. Do they really think Jeopardy watchers are so dumb and lazy they will buy this bullshit? Or do they just have so much money to spend they need to put ads somewhere? Maybe I am just exhausted from living in a swing state all these years. Those of you who live in safe states, consider yourself lucky, even if your guy is going to lose in your state. At least you don't get this constant barrage of crap that makes you hate Democracy by November! Meanwhile, I am looking forward to finishing the book, and maybe it will explain how Jeopardy contestants are able to think the way they do. Or maybe former Jeopardy contestant Budd Bailey can explain it to us.

Vacationing in Louisville?

Everyone knows that America's great vacation spots are the Grand Canyon, Disney, and Louisville,KY! Ok, most folks wouldn't have the last one on the list, and maybe the last 2. I am not going to defend Disney, but I was recently in Louisville and had a great time. Doing what? Well, for starters there is Churchill Downs, home of the Kentucky Derby, and one of the last race tracks in America that is kept in decent shape and appears to have people attending it. If you like sports and alcohol, and who doesn't, then you know that having a mint julep at Churchill Downs is one of those things you JUST GOTTA DO! Cashing a winning ticket would have been nice too, but I'll have to go back for that pleasure.

But the fun in Louisville does not end there. Anyone who played baseball at all has swung a Louisville Slugger, and they still make all their wooden bats in a brick factory in downtown Louisville. And you can take a tour right through the actual working factory. You can also go into their batting cage and swing the same bats they make for major leaguers. Funny, they don't seem to get the same results when operated by mere mortals, but the man who runs the batting cage is polite and manages to avoid laughing....at least he did until we left! Just around the corner from the bat factory is the Muhammed Ali Center. This might have been worth the trip to Louisville by itself. It is a multi-media experience guiding you through the life of probably the most interesting and influential athlete of the 20th century (Jackie Robinson would be the only other person in that conversation!). From Ali's early life in Louisville, to his boxing prowess, his conversion to Islam, legal troubles, and classic fights, you could easily spend the whole day in there. They even have Ali's Rolls Royce. And you can shadow box with The Greatest. In fact, my friend Art has a picture of me cowering as Ali's shadow pummels me. This is an outstanding tribute to an amazing man. Not far from Louisville is the state capital of Frankfort, which is also right in the heart of Bourbon Country. We only had time to visit one distillery, Buffalo Trace. We got a great tour, and got to sample some excellent whiskey. And our tour guide actually said "new fangled"! Did you know it is all just crappy white moonshine until it has been aged in the barrels? Unfortunately, we did not get to sample any of their Pappy Van Winkle's brand, which is very rare and sells for over $500 on Ebay. Ok, you might now say, Louisville sounds cool, but what the hell were you doing there? Well, every couple years I do a "Boys Trip" with my 3 best friends from college, Art, Steve and Gordon. And Art is now President of a company that owns a very successful minor league baseball team in Dayton,OH that he has been telling us we have to visit. We figured we wouldn't find much to do in Dayton other than that, so we went to Louisville first. Then, we drove north and were treated like royalty by the nice folks at Fifth Third Park in Dayton. It is a damn shame that the Reds have sent none of their best prospects to become Dayton Dragons this year, because the folks who work for the team, and the fans who sell out the park every night deserve better than the players we saw, who are likely to be selling Lady Kenmores pretty soon. The only disappointment was that we didn't get the chance to stick a Reds game in the agenda. They were out of town. Oh well, maybe that will be an excuse for a future Boys Trip.

I must be old because I listen to podcasts instead of music.

If you see me at the gym, or on my bike, I will probably have headphones in my ears. You might expect I'm listening to the Allman Brothers, or Coltrane, or Lady Gaga, but I'm probably not (DEFINITELY NOT Lady Gaga!). I'm probably listening to a podcast of some kind. I have found a bunch of podcasts that are either entertaining, informative, or both, and I thought I would share them with you.

Let's start with the NPR stuff. Chances are you are already familiar with "This American Life", "Car Talk", and "Wait Wait, Don't Tell Me". I used to try to plan my weekends around listening to "Car Talk", but now I don't have to. You can download the latest show from each of these on the Monday following the weekend.

As if having NPR podcasts on my MP3 is not geeky enough, I listen to several real nerdfests. The authors of "Freakonomics" have turned their books into a multi-media empire. About once a month they do an hour-long show, and have shorter pieces in between. But they can't come close in econ-geekiness to "Econtalk". Each week George Mason U. economist Russ Roberts hosts a chat with another economist. Despite being a Hayek-utopian, Roberts is a great host, in that he makes sure that his guests speak in a language anyone can understand, and when he disagrees with them he does so politely and asks them to explain themselves like a gentleman. He is the anti-Bill O'Reilly.

The geekdom does not end there. English economist Tim Harford does a podcast called "More or Less", where he actually looks at the numbers behind things that people believe are true. And for real science, as opposed the the dismal kind, I enjoy "Radiolab". Their work often appears on various NPR shows, but you can find hour-long shows about science and discovery, along with "shorts" on an irregular basis from these wise guys.

If you asked questions at Sunday School that made the teacher squirm, you might be interested in "Free Thought Radio", from the fine people at the Freedom From Religion Foundation, who are devoted to the separation of church and state. A more entertaining Athiest, and a newcomer to podcasting is Penn Jilette, of Penn and Teller, who does a show each Sunday called "Penn's Sunday School". And the great Harry Shearer of Spinal Tap and The Simpsons fame, does a show called "Le Show" each Sunday. He's not an Athiest, or if he is he doesn't say, but he does ask a lot of difficult questions about stuff going on in the world.

Finally, there is "WTF with Marc Maron". Maron usually interviews other comedians. Since becoming a professional comedian is a really hard route to take in life, his guests usually have some very funny, or maybe horrifying, stories about their lives to tell, and do so in an amusing way.

There you have some suggestions of ways to be entertained and informed when your hands and eyes are occupied. Check them out. And let me know if I'm missing anything good. I'm going out in the yard to pull dandelions and listen to Econtalk.

What Troubles me about the Treyvon Martin Case

Last November I was visiting my sister at her condo in Florida, and one day we were at the pool sharing the Tampa Tribune. Being old people, we had purchased the print version or the newspaper. At one point she hands me the local news section of the paper, and I said "I'm not all that interested in local news here". "Oh, you should read this. You are in Florida, and there is always something really crazy in the local news" she replied.

The killing of Treyvon Martin has now become another out of control news story, with the usual bloviators from the right and left trying to convict either Zimmerman for murder or Martin for....well, I guess the argument is that he was no angel because he's been in trouble at school, and therefore it was OK for him to get stalked and killed.

There are 2 things about this case that really trouble me. The first is the "Stand Your Ground" law that Florida passed in 2005 making this entire controversy possible. No surprise that the NRA, whose motto is "America is safer when we all shoot each other", was behind getting this law passed. It states that you needn't retreat before using force if you feel your life is threatened. It was sold as allowing victims of domestic violence to fight back, or shoot, when they are threatened, instead of having to run.

Now, I am all for shooting anyone engaged in domestic violence, but the Martin case shows the unintended consequences of this law. And, it raises the question "Where is the line for feeling threatened?". Can you shoot someone who looks at you funny on the street? How about if they look scary and they cross the street and are now on your side of the street walking towards you? Surely, you might feel your life is in danger, so fire away! And say you are frightened of people of other races. Can you just hunt one down and kill him for being in your neighborhood? The Sanford police say yes. Just open fire, say self defense, and the cops will buy it, and you won't even have to stand trial. That bothers me.

Which brings me to the other problem with this, more specific to this case. Even if Zimmerman's story is true, which may not be the case, he still caused this altercation. Martin was walking down the street. There is no indication he was looking for any trouble until he became upset at Zimmerman following him. And Zimmerman did exactly the opposite of what the 911 people told him to do. Yet, the police just buy his self-defense story? Seems he should have received a lot more scrutiny, considering he had ignored police orders.

Which brings me to this question: What if Martin had also had a gun, and he had decided his life was in danger because this white guy was stalking him? He is in the south, where white guys have been known to kill black guys for being black, so not really a stretch. So, if Martin had shot Zimmerman and said "this white guy was following me and I thought he would tie me to his car and drag me to death", would he have gotten the same free pass from the cops? I am guessing not.

The real crime in this case is the Florida law, and the NRA is the criminal. My guess is the right wing nuts are so desperate to make Martin look like some kind of evildoer to divert attention from their beloved promotion of gun violence. These are, after all, the same people who think having guns in bars is a good policy.