Monday, November 16, 2009

In Defense of Bill Belicek!

All the sports world is talking about what an arrogant moron Patriots' coach Bill Belicek is for going for it on 4th and 2 on his own 28 last night. And if all the sports world is in agreement, then Belicek must have been right! I believe all the sports world thought Detroit got a hell of deal by trading Chauncey Billups for Alan Iverson last year about this time.

I have written about this before (for links to data go to my previous post HERE). Statistical analysis by people who are interested in real knowledge instead of believing what everyone else does has shown that NFL coaches punt far to often. These big tough screaming guys on the sideline are really a group of frightened little girls. Belicek is one of the few who doesn't automatically do the most obvious, conservative thing. So the danger to sports fans is that all this blasting of Belicek will even further "pussify" the NFL coaching fraternity.....if that is even possible.

Perhaps, Belicek thought this: If I make the first down, the odds of win are about 95%. If I punt, Manning gets the ball with 1:57 to go at his own 30, plenty of time to score against my defense that has not stopped him this quarter. My offense should be good enough to get 2 yards (being the workaholic he is, he might even have had these odds calculated).

Sure, everyone loves beating up the arrogant "genius" coach with no personality and a few Super Bowl rings. But maybe this type of play is why he has those rings. Remember, the Pats won their first Super Bowl by marching down field and scoring from a point where most other coaches would have taken a knee and played for OT.

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