Monday, November 3, 2008

Politicians: The Smart Investment

A student of mine today told me that he made a bet (didn't say where) on McCain to win the election, getting 170 electoral votes. Said that was the Vegas line. I was not aware Vegas was taking action on such things, but that seems like a pretty good bet. The leading polling analysis sites have him losing pretty big, but covering the spread. I wonder what Hank Goldberg thinks of that line.

Meanwhile, had you been a wise investor, you would have taken your money a year ago and invested in either of our Presidential candidates. Obama is currently trading at about $9.10 on an contract you could have bought a year ago for $.80 on Intrade. The contract pays $10 if he wins. And a similar contract on McCain could have been purchased for less than $.40. Right now it is selling for around $1, but had you sold it after the GOP convention, you could have gotten over $5. McCain's chart for the past 2 months looks even worse than the Dow's.

Either way, you would be far better off than if you had your money in the stock market, or gold, or real estate, or bonds, or......well, you get the idea. So why didn't we see any of the so-called experts on CNBC say "We've purchased a diversified portfolio of candidates", or "We're long Obama, short Guliani". THAT would have been good advice!

1 comment:

infogoddess said...

I presume that you saw the Huffington Post about Hardcore Gamblers as accurate election forecasters

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/keith-thomson/the-most-accurate-electio_b_140181.html