The other day, after reading a post on The Sports Economist about the site, I started watching the prices on Tradesports.com for Presidential candidates. This is a site where you can bet on the outcome of sporting events, weather, politics and other events (even a US recession) by trading futures. If the market sees something as more likely, the price goes up.
In a nutshell, after Primary Gras, McCain is now nearly a lock to win the Republican nomination, while the gap in prices between Hillary and Obama narrowed a few points since Monday. The market is saying that the Republican race is over, and the Dems has just gotten tighter.
This site has historically been very good at predicting outcomes like this, much better than polls. Economists love watching it because they see it as the market making predictions. And it's much more fun than listening to the blabbering pundits on TV.
By the way, Tradesports traders say there is a 70% chance of a recession this year.
1 comment:
Your link to the trading site doesn't work.
I got there by hand, and it was pretty interesting.
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