Most of the polls had Obama and McCain in almost a dead heat before the DNC, with Obama getting a bounce from the convention that McCain should get back from the RNC (unless his ridiculous pick of Sarah Palin blows up in his face). However, it is fun to check out what the traders at Intrade think. This is a site where traders trade futures on events. You can currently trade on things like how hard the next hurricane hits and where, whether Palin makes it through the week as VP nominee, whether the US will attack Iran, and a whole bunch of other stuff, including the presidential race.
The traders still have Obama at a 61% chance of winning, with not much movement from the convention, or from the Palin choice. In fact, he is at about the average of where he has been all of August.
This doesn't mean that he will win for sure, but it seems to conflict a bit with numbers the pollsters are putting up.
No comments:
Post a Comment