Some Monday Thoughts

Watched the first part of Ken Burns' "The National Parks" on PBS, and I will be catching the rest of it through the rest of the week (still using the primitive technology of the VCR to make sure I catch it all). It reminded me of what an amazing place Yellowstone is. If you have never visited a National Park, then get off your ass and go find one, and the best of the many I've been to is Yellowstone, which has everything you could want in such a place....spectacular scenery, geological wonders and weirdness, bears, moose, elk, wolves and bison.

The baseball season has one week to go, and the Rockies magic number for the playoffs is 5. They have returned to earth lately, after playing far better than the probably are during the summer. I do wonder, however, when the national sports media will discover Troy Tulowitzki. He is a shortstop who bats cleanup with 30 homers and 88 RBI, and plays great D. If he were playing on either coast he would be hailed as the "Next Cal Ripken".

Finally, I will be appearing in a play for the first time since 8th grade this November. It is called "The Man Who Never Died", and is about labor organizer Joe Hill. I play an incompetent sleezy lawyer. I figured after all these years of getting paid to be an "actor" I should do at least one play, although rehearsing and learning lines are not in my usual showbiz repertoire.

Economics and Beer

Thanks to Fiona for sending along this concise little PRI piece that discusses world economics as viewed through a beer glass. Listen to it HERE.

The Food Dude

On September 12, a man died who whose death should have gotten about 100 times the publicity of Micheal Jackson and Ted Kennedy's deaths combined. Of course, I am speaking of Norman Borlaug.

Who?

The Economist, in their obituary, calls Borlaug "feeder of the world", but I think "Food Dude" is a lot cooler. He is the man primarily responsible for developing new strains of wheat in various parts of the world, allowing much of the poor world to be able to feed themselves. His work allowed Mexico to become food self-sufficient for the first time in 1956. He was responsible for the "green revolution" in India that did the same thing, and won a Nobel price in 1970. In short, his work allowed the world to greatly in increase food production, avoiding for who knows how long a Malthusian disaster.

Avoid a what?

Thomas Malthus was an early Economist who predicted that, in a nutshell, populations would grow to a point where it was impossible to feed everyone with the earth's resources. Here's a quote from his theory on population:

The power of population is so superior to the power of the earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race. The vices of mankind are active and able ministers of depopulation. They are the precursors in the great army of destruction, and often finish the dreadful work themselves. But should they fail in this war of extermination, sickly seasons, epidemics, pestilence, and plague advance in terrific array, and sweep off their thousands and tens of thousands. Should success be still incomplete, gigantic inevitable famine stalks in the rear, and with one mighty blow levels the population with the food of the world.

While Malthus has yet to be close to correct over 200 years after this dire prediction, he is probably most responsible for Economics being known as "The Dismal Science". So, he's got that going for him, which is nice.

Tom Friedman Strikes Again

NY Times columnist Thomas Friedman has been writing well thought out, brilliant books and articles about world affairs for many years. He is fair, thoughtful, and not held hostage to any particular political doctrine. In other words, he actually thinks about problems and how to solve them best. Therefore, he has ideas that are both brilliant and quite sensible. So, you can be pretty sure that politicians will continue to ignore him, as he both makes sense and does not foam at the mouth, which apparently is the only way the public and our politicians will pay any attention to a commentator. What a shame, because, as today's column shows, Friedman makes sense.

Lewis Black is back and angrier!

Lewis Black has been doing hilarious commentary on The Daily Show for many years, most of it screaming angry rants. So he is happy that America is also raging crazy now. Enjoy!

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart	Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
Back in Black - Angry Outbursts
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor Healthcare Protests

Stop the Punting!

It is hard not to laugh at how conservative NFL coaches are in their decisions. Even to the casual observer, it is clear that they have much more fear of a bad thing happening than they do hope for a good thing. Anyone who watches a game with me will hear the words "effing idiotic wimp" whenever a coach chooses to punt from the opponents 37 on 4th and 2.

It turns out that my gut reaction is also statistically correct. And, it is even more correct if you are discussing this decision at the college or high school level, where the results of a punt or field goal attempt are less sure than in the NFL.

There is a short article in Sport Illustrated this week called "Just Go For It" about a high school coach in Arkansas named Kevin Kelley who never punts or tries field goals, and also tries and on-sides kick on every kick off. His reason? He has done the numbers and determined that the potential gains from going for it are greater than the potential losses of failing. He's done the numbers and calculated the probabilities. Oh, and he wins a lot more games than he losses.

Meahwhile, over at the NY Times, stats geek Brain Murray has done his own study, and concluded that NFL coaches are far more conservative than probability models would suggest they should be. This is the same conclusion University of California economist David Romer came to a few years ago when he studied the same thing. You can read his whole paper here if you are so inclined.

So, why are these otherwise macho guys such wimps when it comes to risk? I would agree with what others have postulated: that coaches do what everyone else does so they don't get fired if a riskier decision goes wrong. It is also likely that most of them have never done the math, and that is they took a stats class in college they might have slept through it.

I read something about this a few years ago, and it turns out the NFL coach who goes for it most often on 4th down is Bill Belichick. Why? Maybe it's because his job is certainly very secure, or perhaps it has something to do with the fact that he has a degree in Economics.

Inglorious Basterds

Saw Quentin Tarantino's "Inglorious Basterds" last night. Another amusing and very violent film from Tarantino that was a bit too long. Great dialague and interesting characters, but Tarantino seems to have reached the point where he is now too big to be edited. No reason for this film to run 150 minutes. Actually, he reached that point a few years ago with "Kill Bill", which should have been edited into 1 normal length film, not 2 drawn out mediocre films.

Now, the question is, how many people are seeing this movie and wondering about it's historical accuracy?